By Michelle Lyng and Jessie Koerner
Normally, in the Novitas office, we have a tradition the day after the election of breaking down the results and debating the why and how in a thoughtful and respectful way. It’s part of what makes our company so special.
This year, we’re putting that tradition on hold for an hour or two. Jessie and I have agreed to not confer with each other this morning and, instead, to first write a blog post on why we think the election went the way it did. Why Jessie? Jessie and I couldn’t hold more different political views, but she has worked alongside me for many years and is one of my favorite foxhole buddies. Here’s each of our takeaways from the election. I’ll let Jessie go first.
Winning is easy. Governing’s harder.
Republicans found this out, and Democrats are about to be beholden to it.
For two years, Republicans have had the reins of government, and have been run away with. High prices, diminished world standing (I mean, we angered the Canadians and went to war with Iran), and tax breaks for the richest people and companies in the world with the One Big Beautiful Bill all got out of their control. This Red Wedding (Game of Thrones, anyone?) has everything to do with that, and very little to do with voters’ endorsement of the Democrats. Indeed, the memes this morning are about bullying current-Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries into action now.
There were three promises that Republicans, specifically President Trump, made to be elected in 2024: no new wars; the release of the Epstein files and accountability; and making life more affordable for Americans. It’s not just that the promises weren’t kept. They were obliterated. We’re at war to the tune of $50 billion. The administration is actively fighting the release of the Epstein documents. And it costs $100 to leave the house with the prices of gas, groceries, Uber, anything, with Trump disparaging the idea of “affordability.”
Democrats, on the whole, have responded weakly to the state of things. Primary results, especially in Colorado, showed the party faithful’s displeasure with the status quo. It’s because of this that I saw the writing on the wall early for the Weiser-Bennet race in June. Weiser was my choice in the primary. Weiser had the optics of actively fighting this administration in court; Bennet had floor speeches. When it came to wanting someone to stop the madness, Weiser had the momentum.
It becomes glaring when you look at turnout in the general election. Republicans stayed home…but so did Democrats. In Colorado, turnout was 54% yesterday. In 2022, that number was 58%. In 2018? 65%. I would be interested to know what impact the President harping on vote by mail fraud and election security had on this, as well.
The desire for the Democrats to simply do something, anything, to counter the administration by the party’s base opened the lane for more upstart progressive candidates like Melat Kiros in Denver, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Nithya Raman in L.A. Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York lit a fire under progressives in the party, showing what organization, support, and focus can do in government. Headlines coming out of the city are of balanced budgets, childcare, and taxing the rich––who haven’t fled for redder pastures. Voters around the country looked at those basic government services and asked, “Why not here?”
In Colorado, Amendment 87, creating a graduated income tax where the rich pay more, is poised to pass, while Proposition 136, capping income tax at 4.4%, is failing. The partial dismantling of TABOR in Proposition NN is passing handily, as well.
The “socialist agenda” of the left doesn’t look so expensive when compared to what this administration is handing away to billionaires and corporations in a continued upward transfer of wealth. The Iran war expense, and paying for Israel’s bombs rankle voters when the government is providing no services or help to make things more affordable at home. Voters can see what executives are making, and while they may not be able to describe it as a K-shaped economy, they know what’s happening is making their lives more expensive.
However, the sentiment stops short when it comes to Left issues that don’t affect the majority, or their bank accounts. While abortion healthcare was supported in places like Missouri and Virginia, it lost in Idaho. Trans youth rights lost in Colorado. These culture war issues are failing to mobilize like they once did. I have to think it’s a fatigue of sorts, while our pocketbooks are being stretched to the max.
When it comes to the issues on Colorado’s ballot this year, I think voters didn’t appreciate that they were being asked to enshrine in our Constitution the pet projects of a billionaire. The anti-rich sentiment drove the activism behind the “no” campaigns, with efforts like Ballots & Brews hosted by online influencer Alpine Eatery Food Truck highlighting the billionaire’s role bankrolling the efforts. Colorado’s “eat the rich” sentiments will be fascinating to follow, as the state doesn’t have the urgent necessity of a place like New York City or the state of California. It’s also noteworthy that Colorado is treated as a bellwether on policy issues that other billionaires pour money into (*cough* Michael Bloomberg *cough*).
Nationally, it should be noted that the marquee results for the Democrats on election night were driven, per usual, by Black voters. The highest turnout, and the highest propensity to vote Democrat lies with this group, especially Black women. Latino voters also came back to the Democrats. The return of this block also can be attributed to Immigration and Customs Enforcement overreach in the last two years (another failure of the administration). Mobilizing this base of voters of color is essential for the party, and enfranchising these folks puts places like Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas in play.
Now, if they want to keep momentum heading into 2028, Democrats must produce some results on the exact things that caused Republicans to lose: affordability, Epstein, and the war with Iran.
And now, Michelle’s take…
Promises Made, Promises Broken: The Republican Trust Gap
Republicans got a tail kicking last night. The explanation is straightforward: voters stopped believing the party would deliver on its promises.
In 2024, President Donald Trump and Republicans offered a clear deal: put them back in charge, and they would make life more affordable, restore order at the border, cut government waste, and end the senseless wars.
Those were concrete promises, and voters expected concrete results. Nearly two years later, the distance between those promises and everyday life became a trust gap (dare I say chasm?) Republicans could no longer talk their way across.
CBS’ exit polling found that voters who said their finances had worsened backed Democrats for the House. Most voters said Trump’s tariffs hurt the economy and military action against Iran was the wrong decision.
Instead of delivering affordability, the Iran War caused fuel prices to rise and interest rates remain persistently high. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year mortgage rate was 7.24% heading into the election, compared with 6.17% last year. To put this in context, for every $100,000 borrowed, that’s an extra $61 per month. For many areas in the Denver metro area, that averages over $350 per month, which is real affordability erosion.
While it’s true that Republicans and Presidents don’t control interest rates, it’s also true they campaigned on making life easier. Expensive gas, groceries, housing and utilities also continued to bust family budgets.
Then, there are the wars. Voters cheered the prospect of fewer foreign conflicts consuming American lives, resources, and attention. Now, we are in month eight in a war against Iran contributing to higher fuel prices. That connects the broken foreign policy promise directly to household budgets. Russia’s war against Ukraine also remains unresolved. Regardless of the obstacles, and they are substantial, the promised breakthrough has not arrived.
DOGE followed a similar trajectory of enormous expectations, constant attention, and a lackluster finish.
Making government more efficient is a reasonable objective. Taxpayers deserve to know where their money goes, but that requires sustained management, credible accounting, transparency, and long-lasting reforms.
Immigration deserves the same honesty, regardless if you agree with the policy or not. Yes, deportations have happened. Reuters reported an estimated 980,000 deportations across several enforcement categories during the administration’s first 18 months.
But Trump set expectations for sweeping mass deportations. Republicans then had to govern through the legal, diplomatic and logistical morass that campaign rhetoric didn’t cover. Then, there was concern among voters about how the enforcement was conducted.
Taken together, these failures created a serious political problem. Republican electeds kept asking voters to judge their intentions, but voters were judging by their own circumstances.
It wasn’t just the policies themselves that caused the trust gap. Communication matters. When the promise and the experience diverge further and further, a louder message only worsens the credibility gap. When politicians claim success while voters feel worse off, voters question whether politicians even remotely understand them.
And, then, there’s the question of candidate quality in some races. There’s not enough words to describe how large a problem this is in Colorado and it seems to have spread nationwide – Texas, Alaska, South Carolina, and Mississippi to name a few.
Voters simply reached a breaking point. It’s not that they suddenly embraced the Democratic agenda. They just had ample reason to withdraw their confidence from those in charge.
Republicans failed to give voters a reason to show up. It may be too early to declare Colorado’s participation historically low, but turnout deserves some attention too.
As of this morning, approximately 639,667 registered Republicans had returned ballots, which translates to about 72% of the party’s October active registration. Compare that with reported Republican turnout of 75.7% in 2022 (when Republican raw numbers were even higher) and an estimated 83.2% in 2018. While it’s true that the 2026 count can still rise, current figures indicate a smaller share of registered Republicans participating than in previous midterms. Nationally, voter turnout appears to be strong; although, states break down voter registration differently, so it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison.
Republicans earned the loss of confidence through promises they made, expectations they encouraged, and results they failed to deliver. Earning it back will require fewer promises, honest explanations of the tradeoffs, and evidence that Republican leaders can execute on policy change.
Republicans should examine persuasion and participation with equal seriousness. Voters took the GOP’s promises seriously. Republicans should take their failures seriously, too. Having claimed authority while seeking election, Republicans cannot reasonably expect voters to dismiss it when evaluating performance.
